Indices
Use an index when a single market is too narrow. Adjacent combines many
prediction markets into a value that you can track over time.
The catalog includes political examples such as
red and blue, along with
red_tr (RED-TR), a total-return index, and NFL team indices
(methodology nti). Other index methodologies can use the same endpoints.What an index helps you answer
Use an index when you want to follow a group of markets without choosing one
market at a time. The index detail gives you its current level and recent
change. The constituents endpoint shows which markets contribute to that level
and how much each one weighs.
Use price history to chart the index. Use the export endpoints when you want
to work with the series in a spreadsheet or analysis script.
Read an index value
The RED, BLUE, and UPFI political indices use a 50–150 scale. They do not use a
0–100 probability scale or a dollar price. The formula is
value = 50 + (the index party's aggregate win-probability, in percent).
The scale runs from 50 (0%) through 100 (an even 50/50) to 150 (100%).
Subtract 50 from the value to get the implied win probability. For example,
95 ≈ 45%, 109 ≈ 59%, and 130 ≈ 80%.For the political examples,
red above 100 means Republicans are favored
across its races and blue above 100 means Democrats are favored. Other
indices can use a different scale, so check the index's methodology before
comparing values. A constituent market's price is a 0–100% Yes
probability, which is different from the index scale.Set
ADJ_TOKEN to an API key before running these examples. See
Authentication.Find an index
Start by listing indices if you do not know which index id to use.
1curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices"
Read an index
The response includes the latest price and 1-day and 7-day changes.
1curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices/red"
The index response gives you the current value and recent changes. Use the
constituents link when you need to explain what moved the index.12curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" \ "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices/red/constituents"
Understand an index's composition
Each constituent carries a
kind (market for leaf markets, index for a
composite's child sub-indices) alongside its computed weight.The current political catalog defines two composites:
| Composite | Ticker | Child sub-indices and fixed weights |
red | RED | presr_kalshi / PRESR 40%, senater_kalshi / SENR 30%, houser_kalshi / HOUSER 20%, govr_kalshi / GOVR 8%, mayorr_kalshi / MAYORR 2% |
blue | BLUE | presd_kalshi / PRESD 40%, senated_kalshi / SEND 30%, housed_kalshi / HOUSED 20%, govd_kalshi / GOVD 8%, mayord_kalshi / MAYORD 2% |
Sub-index market weights use the UPFI methodology factors. Presidential and
Senate weights use lifetime cumulative contract or share count and
time-to-resolution. House, Governor, and Mayoral weights use jurisdiction
population. House and Governor use state population. Mayoral uses city
population. There is no impact factor.
RED and BLUE publish a trailing 1-hour SMA of the raw composite value.
Sub-indices publish their raw per-cycle value.
red_tr / RED-TR does not use the 50–150 scale. It is a path-dependent
total-return index over RED's eligible constituents: 100 is its base value,
125 is a cumulative return of 25%, and the value is not SMA-smoothed.NFL team indices (
methodology nti, quote_convention points) also skip
the 50-150 scale. Each leaf index tracks one team across four sleeves (Super Bowl,
conference, division, next game). An active sleeve holds a constant 25
contracts; the level starts at 1000 and adds each sleeve's dollar P&L,
NTI_t = NTI_{t-1} + Σ 25 × (P_t - P_prev), floored at zero. A composite of
NTI team indices is also methodology nti and quote_convention points:
it is an equal-weight blend of the children's raw NAV, not a 50-150
probability and not a trailing SMA. Index detail
returns those holdings as sleeves and the latest official daily print as
official_daily_value. Read the official daily series and recent sleeve
admissions or settlements on the family-specific routes (other families
return an empty list):123curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices/{id}/daily-values" curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices/{id}/membership-events"
Track an index over time
1curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/indices/red/prices?interval=1hour&per_page=24"
Download the data
You can download index listings and price history as CSV or TSV for offline
analysis.
123curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/export/indices/csv" curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $ADJ_TOKEN" "https://api.adjacent.markets/api/v1/export/indices/red/prices.csv?interval=1hour"
See the API reference for full schemas.