Indices

Adjacent computes a family of political indices from live prediction-market data. The two headline composites are red (Republican strength) and blue (Democratic strength), each a weighted blend of five partisan sub-indices (Presidential, Senate, House, Governor, Mayoral). The catalog also includes red_tr (RED-TR), a derived total-return index that compounds RED constituent returns from a base value of 100.

Reading the value

RED, BLUE, and their UPFI sub-indices use a 50–150 scale, not a 0–100 probability or a dollar price:

value = 50 + (the index party's aggregate
win-probability, in percent)

. So:

100 is the neutral baseline: the index party's aggregate win-probability across its tracked races is 50/50.
value − 50 is the implied win-probability: 109 ≈ 59%, 95 ≈ 45%, 130 ≈ 80%.
The scale runs 50 (0%) to 150 (100%), so an outcome is "near-certain" only as the value approaches 150 (or 50). A value near 100–110 is a mild tilt, not a sure thing.
red above 100 means Republicans are favored across its races; blue above 100 means Democrats are. A constituent market's own price is a 0–100% Yes probability, a different scale from the index value.

List indices

1curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/indices"

Index detail

Includes the latest price plus 1-day and 7-day changes.

1curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/indices/red"

Composition and weights

Each constituent carries a kind (market for leaf markets, index for a composite's child sub-indices) alongside its computed weight.

The seed catalog currently defines two composites:

Composite	Ticker	Child sub-indices and fixed weights
`red`	`RED`	`presr_kalshi` / `PRESR` 40%, `senater_kalshi` / `SENR` 30%, `houser_kalshi` / `HOUSER` 20%, `govr_kalshi` / `GOVR` 8%, `mayorr_kalshi` / `MAYORR` 2%
`blue`	`BLUE`	`presd_kalshi` / `PRESD` 40%, `senated_kalshi` / `SEND` 30%, `housed_kalshi` / `HOUSED` 20%, `govd_kalshi` / `GOVD` 8%, `mayord_kalshi` / `MAYORD` 2%

Sub-index market weights use the current UPFI methodology factors: lifetime cumulative contract/share count and time-to-resolution for Presidential and Senate, plus jurisdiction population for House, Governor, and Mayoral. House and Governor use state population; Mayoral uses city population. There is no impact factor. For live published values, RED and BLUE apply a trailing 1-hour SMA to the raw composite value; sub-indices publish their raw per-cycle value.

red_tr / RED-TR is not a composite probability and does not use the 50–150 scale. It is a path-dependent total-return index based on RED's eligible constituents: 100 is its base value, 125 means a cumulative return of 25%, and the value is not SMA-smoothed.

1curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/indices/red/constituents"

Price history

1curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/indices/red/prices?interval=1hour&limit=24"

Export

Index listings and price history are available as CSV or JSON for offline analysis.

123curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/export/indices/csv" -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_TOKEN"

curl "http://localhost:7101/api/v1/export/indices/red/prices.csv?interval=1hour" -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_TOKEN"

See the API Reference for full schemas.